Expectancy Calculator
Combine win rate with average win and average loss to compute expectancy — the average result you'd expect per trade over a large sample — plus profit factor and R-multiple.
Calculator
Average size of a winning trade.
Enter as a positive number.
Formula
- Expectancy = (Win rate × Avg win) − ((1 − Win rate) × Avg loss)
- R-multiple = Expectancy ÷ Avg loss
- Profit factor = (Win rate × Avg win) ÷ ((1 − Win rate) × Avg loss)
How it works
Expectancy is the average amount you would expect to make or lose per trade if a system's win rate and average win/loss persisted over a large number of trades. It ties the pieces together: neither win rate nor reward size means much on its own.
A system can have a low win rate and still be positive if winners are large relative to losers, or a high win rate yet be negative if losers dwarf winners. The R-multiple expresses expectancy in units of risk, and profit factor compares gross wins to gross losses.
Expectancy is computed from inputs you supply, typically estimated from historical results. Past statistics do not guarantee future results, and nothing here is advice.
Example use cases
Asymmetric winners
50% win rate, avg win $200, avg loss $100 → expectancy $50 per trade, profit factor 2.0.
Break-even system
50% win rate with equal $100 wins and losses → expectancy $0, profit factor 1.0.
Frequently asked questions
Should I enter average loss as a negative number?+
No — enter it as a positive magnitude (e.g. 100 for an average $100 loss). The formula subtracts it for you.
What does a profit factor below 1 mean?+
It means gross losses exceeded gross wins over the sample, i.e. negative expectancy. A profit factor of exactly 1 is break-even before costs.